538 Senate Forecast 2024. Kamala harris leads by 2.3 points in our national polling average and our forecast gives her a 53 percent chance to win the election — down from 54 percent yesterday. See how each party’s forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the senate have changed over time.
We think the republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber. Our forecast predicts that, on average, republicans will wind up with 50.9 seats — essentially 51, which would be just enough for outright control of the chamber.