538 Senate Forecast 2024 . Kamala harris leads by 2.3 points in our national polling average and our forecast gives her a 53 percent chance to win the election — down from 54 percent yesterday. See how each party’s forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the senate have changed over time.
We think the republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber. Our forecast predicts that, on average, republicans will wind up with 50.9 seats — essentially 51, which would be just enough for outright control of the chamber.
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New 2022 Senate Map Forecasts (538, DDHQ, Politico) 2022 Election , Our forecast predicts that, on average, republicans will wind up with 50.9 seats — essentially 51, which would be just enough for outright control of the chamber.
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538 Predictions for the Senate with and without expert forecasts , View the latest 2024 biden trump senate forecast predictions and create your own 2024 election prediction map.
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Senate Majority 2024 Bell Marika , Each party’s seat count in scenarios where it wins the senate in our deluxe model’s 40,000 simulations.
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Ohio Senate Race 2024 Polls 538 Drucy Gretchen , Defeated election denier kari lake and wealthy businessman blake masters are both reportedly considering a run for senate in 2024.
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Video How Early Senate Results Could Change The Forecast , Data for fivethirtyeight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 republican primary averages is available for download here.
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